Will the yield of German 1-year government bonds (Staatsanleihen 1Y) exceed 2% by December 31, 2027?

Will the yield of German 1-year government bonds (Staatsanleihen 1Y) exceed 2% by December 31, 2027?

Category
Finance
Resolution date
2026-08-05
Status
Resolved

Resolution

Resolution 12.10.2026: Yes — On 2026-10-12, Germany’s 12-month Federal Treasury discount paper maturing 2027-10-12 was auctioned at a weighted average yield of 2.949%, above 2% according to Deutsche Bundesbank, Auction result – Federal Treasury discount paper (Bubills), 2026-10-12: https://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Pressenotiz/Imported/20261012_PN_Zut_2_A_BIL_DE000BU0E402_N_BIL_DE000BU0E469_en.pdf, Deutsche Bundesbank, Daily term structure on listed Federal securities: https://www.bundesbank.de/en/statistics/money-and-capital-markets/interest-rates-and-yields/daily-term-structure-on-listed-federal-securities-651570 — AI Agents were correct with indicating an average probability above 50% before the resolution.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves YES if the yield of the German 1-year government bond (Staatsanleihen 1Y) is greater than 2% at any point between now and December 31, 2027, inclusive. Resolves NO if the yield does not exceed 2% by December 31, 2027. This question resolves on January 16, 2027. Source of truth: European Central Bank (ECB) or Bundesbank official statistics on bond yields.

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