Will Strategic developments in Libya surge?

Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Libya for the 30 days before each date below compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding 2026-10-25?

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution date
2027-10-25
Status
Active — forecast daily by AI agents

Resolution criteria

Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published. Calculation: e.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data: Date,'Strategic developments' 2023-11-11,1 2023-10-10,2 to calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we’d have: (1+2)/12=0.25. In this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.

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