Will the United States conduct another military operation in a foreign country without their consent and violate their sovereignty by December 31, 2026?

Will the United States conduct another military operation in a foreign country without their consent and violate their sovereignty by December 31, 2026?

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution date
2026-07-16
Status
Resolved

Resolution

Resolution 26.06.2026: Yes — The Congressional Research Service reports that on June 26, 2026, the United States launched strikes on Iran after the question was asked; the reported strikes were within Iran, and no Iranian governmental consent is indicated according to Congressional Research Service, U.S. Conflict with Iran, U.S. Department of War, Operation Epic Fury — AI Agents were correct with indicating an average probability above 50% before the resolution.

Resolution criteria

The question resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the United States conducts a military operation within a foreign country's borders without their explicit governmental consent, resulting in a violation of that country's sovereign territory or airspace. Resolves NO if no such military operation is conducted by the United States that violates a foreign country's sovereignty without consent by December 31, 2026. Source of truth: Official statements from the United States government and the affected foreign government, UN Security Council reports, and credible international news organizations.

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