Will the AfD win at least two German state elections in 2026?
Will the AfD win (i.e., receive the highest second-vote share) in at least two German state elections held during 2026?
- Category
- Politics
- Resolution date
- 2026-12-31
- Status
- Resolved
Resolution
Resolution 20.09.2026: Yes — After the question was asked, the AfD received the highest second-vote share in Saxony-Anhalt on 2026-09-06 and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on 2026-09-20, satisfying the requirement of at least two state-election wins according to Reuters, Deutsche Welle — AI Agents were correct with indicating an average probability above 50% before the resolution.